Annual Legacy Income Set To Surpass £3.9 Billion
Legacy income is set to increase by 3.6 per cent per annum over the next five years.
According to revised forecasts by Legacy Foresight, legacy income will rise from £3.2 billion in 2019 to £3.9 billion in 2024.
During the summer of 2019, Legacy Foresight had predicted that legacy income would rise by around 3.3 per cent per year. However, following higher Office for National Statistics (ONS) predictions on the number of UK deaths.
The ONS believe deaths will rise from 600,000 per year in the present to 645,000 in 2024. This should lead to an inevitable rise in legacy gifts from 120,000 per year to 130,000 by 2024.
The additional increases are dependent on the continued economic recovery. Based on the current trajectory created by a clear Brexit outcome, UK GDP is set to rise by 1.7% from next year with house prices increasing by 3.6% per year – a considerable improvement on the subdued 0.4% growth in 2019.
Jon Franklin, Economist at Legacy Foresight, commented:
“For now, legacy market growth will not return to the levels seen in the run-up to Brexit when incomes were growing at 4.1% per year. However, at a time when many charities are reporting flat or falling donations, these forecasts are welcome news for fundraising teams across the UK.”
Richard Hill, Programme Manager at Legacy Foresight, comments:
“We believe that some unusually large bequests bolstered income growth in early 2019. We saw total bequest numbers down 9% on 2018 figures. We estimate that 3% of this fall was due to a short-term reduction in deaths after the unusually severe winter of 2018/19. The remaining 6% drop was caused by the widely reported delays at probate courts.
“These delays now appear to be lessening, with a backlog of around 3,200 bequests to be processed over the coming months. Legacy notifications should return to ‘normal’ levels during 2020.”